From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving
What is the future of cash? The question has several dimensions. One is philosophical: should people always be able to pay in banknotes or would electronic forms of money suffice? Another is economic: how are changing payment usage patterns affecting the economy, and what does this mean for central bank operations? A third is mathematical: what will demand for cash look like a year from now? To answer this last question, forecasting models are needed. It turns out that the quality of
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